Brazil's Electricity System Monitoring Committee Emphasizes Excellent Power System Performance in 2025

 

Brazil's Electricity System Monitoring Committee Emphasizes Excellent Power System Performance in 2025, Approves 2026 Energy Storage Reference Curve Tool

 

The Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy held its 313th Electricity System Monitoring Committee meeting on December 3rd, highlighting the excellent performance of Brazil's electricity system in 2025 and ensuring nationwide power security. The meeting also released forecasts for 2026.

The National Electricity System Operator presented a 2026 energy storage reference curve proposal at the meeting. This tool will assist the committee in deciding whether to take or maintain additional measures to ensure national energy supply. Its construction methodology is the same as in 2025 and was approved by the Electricity System Monitoring Committee. The committee also approved the operator's proposed method for defining energy surplus, which follows Ministry of Mines and Energy Decree No. 115/2025, establishing guidelines for the use of inflexible generation at thermal power plants. Regarding the reduction of bids for inflexible thermal power plants related to regulated environmental energy commercialization contracts, the proposed operational procedures aim to prioritize the power security of the national interconnected system, avoid increasing costs for the Brazilian electricity sector, and not affect reservoir energy storage.

 

In accordance with Resolution 1/2025 of the Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee, a proposal to update the Conditional Value at Risk (CVR) calibration methodology was put forward at the meeting. This methodology incorporates comments from the latest thematic public consultation for the 2025-2026 cycle. Participants emphasized the need for greater transparency and predictability in selecting tolerances to meet the energy storage reference curve, and the need to consider overcapacity in thermal power generation in addition to power shortages. Based on the new methodology, the effects of operating policies adopted in the previous hydrological cycle, and the approved 2026 energy storage reference curve, the Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee decided to maintain the current risk perception when assessing the risk aversion level of the electricity sector's calculation models for next year. To ensure transparency in the updated CVR calibration methodology, a workshop is planned for January 2026 to introduce all changes and assumptions to all parties.

 

As of November 2025, the equivalent energy storage levels of the Southeast/Midwest, Southern, Northeastern, and Northern subsystems were 42%, 88%, 45%, and 59%, respectively, with the overall energy storage level of the national interconnected system at approximately 46%. In terms of expansion, in November 2025, 186 MW of centralized power generation capacity, 328 km of transmission lines, and 2310 MVA of transformer capacity were added, bringing the cumulative new power generation capacity to 6751 MW, transmission lines to 4000 km, and transformer capacity to 10897 MVA as of that month. The commissioning of the last four units of the Boasalte Solar PV Complex and the Mauriti 9 Solar PV Power Station were highlighted.